The Kansas City Chiefs are entering unfamiliar territory: they are no longer the automatic answer when the football world is asked to name the AFC’s best team.
In a preseason survey published by The Athletic, six NFL executives ranked Kansas City an average of 5.7 among AFC teams—sixth in the conference. Their individual votes placed the Chiefs third, fifth, fifth, fifth, seventh and ninth. Only one executive categorized Kansas City as a Super Bowl contender, while the other five viewed the Chiefs as division contenders.
Sixth place sounds almost insulting for a franchise led by Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. It is also not completely irrational.
The Chiefs finished 6–11 last season. They missed the playoffs and watched a different team represent the conference after Kansas City had reached three consecutive Super Bowls. Mahomes is coming back from major knee surgery. The roster underwent significant changes, including the trade of All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie. Young players will be asked to replace proven production on both sides of the ball.
An objective observer should not ignore those facts simply because the Chiefs dominated the previous era. Reputation can earn respect, but it cannot cover a receiver, protect the quarterback or generate a pass rush.
Still, there is a strange contradiction inside the ranking.
The same survey listed Kansas City’s projected win total at 10.5, tied for the second-highest figure in the AFC. In other words, the broader market expects the Chiefs to win roughly 11 games while the executives collectively placed five conference teams ahead of them.
That gap reveals the real debate surrounding Kansas City. The Chiefs are not being dismissed. They are being treated as a high-floor team with more uncertainty than the conference’s presumed elite.
The skeptics have questions that Kansas City must answer. Can Mahomes remain effective when plays break down? Will the rebuilt secondary survive against elite quarterbacks? Can the offensive line stabilize quickly? Will younger defenders produce enough pressure around Chris Jones? Can an offense that slipped badly last season rediscover its identity under returning coordinator Eric Bieniemy?
Those are legitimate questions. But every AFC contender carries its own version of them.
What separates Kansas City is the quality of the people responsible for finding answers. Reid has spent more than a decade adjusting his offense to different personnel. Steve Spagnuolo has repeatedly rebuilt defensive packages during the season rather than depending on a finished product in September. Brett Veach has been aggressive about adding players and reshaping the roster when the team’s weaknesses become obvious.
Most importantly, the Chiefs still have Mahomes. His knee deserves scrutiny, and nobody should assume he will immediately look identical to his pre-injury self. But ranking Kansas City requires evaluating more than one reconstructed ligament. It requires deciding how much the league’s most accomplished active quarterback, paired with one of its best coaches, should count when the roster around them remains unsettled.
At least one executive in the survey essentially made that argument, choosing the Chiefs third and expressing confidence that Reid and a healthy Mahomes could deliver 11 victories.
That may be the most reasonable position. Kansas City should not be handed the AFC crown because of what happened several years ago. It also should not be treated like an ordinary rebuilding team because of one disastrous season.
The 2026 Chiefs are a volatile mix of championship infrastructure and unproven pieces. The ceiling remains a Super Bowl. The floor is lower than fans became accustomed to during the franchise’s dominant run.
That volatility may explain why the executives disagreed so sharply. A third-place vote says the Chiefs’ foundation still matters. A ninth-place vote says the roster turnover and health questions are too significant to overlook. Both views can be defended before the season begins.
From a Chiefs fan’s perspective, there is also something refreshing about the uncertainty. Kansas City spent years carrying the pressure of being the favorite in nearly every meaningful conversation. Every loss became a referendum. Every close victory was treated as evidence that the dynasty was slipping.
Now the Chiefs have something they have rarely possessed during the Mahomes era: a chance to surprise people.
Rankings in September do not decide home-field advantage, division titles or playoff games. They measure confidence before the evidence arrives. Kansas City will have 17 opportunities to show whether sixth was a fair warning or a serious miscalculation.
The Chiefs have not earned the right to dismiss their doubters. They have earned the right to make those doubters nervous.
Sources: The Athletic: NFL executives rank the AFC; Arrowhead Pride: Chiefs ranked outside the AFC’s top five; Chiefs.com: Kansas City’s 2026 roster moves
Editorial and Copyright Notes
These posts are original fan analysis based on publicly reported facts. They do not reproduce or closely rewrite the source articles.
Recheck roster status, injuries, betting lines and game availability immediately before publishing because NFL news can change quickly.
Link to original reporting when publishing, especially for surveys, direct interviews and team announcements.
The “just over 40 games” figure is an estimate that can change because of international scheduling and playoff appearances.
The AFC ranking reflects a preseason opinion survey, not an official league ranking.
Do not reuse source photographs without permission. Use properly licensed editorial photography, team-approved media or original graphics.
